Here’s an interesting number: 1.7 billion. That, according to the ITU, is the number of people who’ll be accessing the internet using a mobile device by 2013.

Here’s a second interesting number: 70%. That, this time according to mobile ad and content provider Buzzcity, is the percentage of times that a mobile device is to access the internet from the user’s home. People only go mobile with their mobile about 1/3 of the time. I imagine the other 70% are people who’re too lazy to get out of bed or off the sofa when they want to look something up.

What does it all mean?

It means that using mobile internet in the home is going to be pretty big. People won’t be turning their computer on to check Facebook or to look up the name of that actor who was in that thing or to tweet what they’re having for tea. It’s also going to spell the “death” of internet advertising. Of course, it won’t actually be the death of internet advertising at all, I just put inflammatory statements in so I get links (like every other blogger), but it will spell a paradigm shift in the way advertising works.

When a user checks something on their mobile phone using the internet they’re very focused. Far more so than a user on a desktop PC or a laptop. You fire up your mobile browser, look up the thing, and switch off. You’re very unlikely to be distracted. This presents a problem for traditional (in internet terms) in-page advertising. Pay per click adverts only raise revenue if the user is willing to leave the website to look at whatever is being advertised to them. If they aren’t, and mobile users generally aren’t willing to leave, then PPC can’t work – users won’t click adverts, no money comes in, no funds for the business. Per impression advertising is a possible solution, but advertisers aren’t keen for obvious reasons. Even with the advantage of geospacial or device specific targeting PPI is unlikely to be the answer.

What is?

I believe there are two options. The first, and rather more positive idea, is a cross-site micropayment subscription model. I foresee the development of something akin to a massive walled garden that any website can join in with. The user would pay for credit to access any site within the paywall at a minimal fee (in the region of £1 per 1000 pages) perhaps as part of their mobile phone payment scheme, and the website providers would get paid when users view pages. This idea is not new – it’s been trialed on many hundreds of website and website collectives in the past and never really worked. I think the situation will be different for mobile though. People are much more receptive to paying for mobile content; be it texts, call time, apps, or ringtones.

The second idea is one I hope doesn’t happen. Website providers might simply close the door to mobile users. I use websites like Thinkexist.com quite frequently for looking up facts. If they realise that they’re making an overall loss from mobile users they’ll be left with either charging for subscriptions, accepting the loss, or blocking the users. Some websites will accept the loss in the name of being fluffy and nice to their users, perhaps in the hope that they’ll come back to the website from a PC and click on adverts. I fear more won’t be so generous though. They’ll block mobile browsers, either permanently or with a click-through advertising splash page (see IMDB.com on an iPhone for an idea of how that works).

Either way, the burgeoning mobile internet market is going to bring about some sort of change. Exciting times.